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Wagner seized Russian towns that had become key to the Kremlin’s resupply efforts. The first city the fighters overran, Rostov-on-Don, is home to the Russian army’s southern command headquarters, the nerve center for the invasion of Ukraine and is essential for supply, command and logistics. It is along the route for Russian forces to travel into the Donbas region that has become the center conflict of the war. That it fell so quickly should make Russian military leaders uneasy.
Ryan O’Leary, an American serving as a junior sergeant in the Ukrainian military, said he and his fellow soldiers found the initial revolt “glorious,” and they hoped Rostov-on-Don would fall quickly and damage Russia’s resupply and capabilities in the air.
Shortly after Prigozhin’s retreat, O’Leary said he still expects the situation to benefit his unit on the front lines in the days and weeks ahead, particularly if Russia struggles to bring supplies to bolster its front lines and its officers have to suss out the allegiances of Wagner fighters now under the military’s command.
Further supply and leadership problems will come because of this, O’Leary said, “It’s just a matter of where and how long it takes to kick in.”
What implications this deal might have for the Russian military leadership whom Prigozhin has publicly castigated, particularly Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, and how it could affect the war remains unclear.
That Putin sided with his military leadership will likely put pressure on them to deliver quick results on the battlefield, though achieving that amid the recent public infighting while also accommodating Wagner’s fighters could prove to be a challenge as Ukraine continues to press.
“Prigozhin has been railing against those two for months, yet Putin keeps them in place,” said Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. “It makes Putin even more personally responsible for the running of the war.”
Achieving a swift battlefield victory will be a challenge amid the turmoil, said former Ukrainian Vice Defense Minister Leonid Polyakov, who now works for a Kyiv-based think tank advising President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Prigozhin’s revolt could disorient Russian soldiers, from officers on down, and have a drastic impact on their motivation, loyalty and interests, he said.
“Quite likely it will have a positive effect on (the) Ukrainian counteroffensive,” he said.
Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, who led U.S. Central Command before retiring last year, agreed that this was a moment for Ukraine to go all in and take advantage of the disarray. He said it was a tactical opportunity for Ukrainian soldiers on the ground. The Wagner fighters will be getting realigned under Russia’s military leadership and mass confusion could set in.
It was also an illustration of Putin’s weakness, the retired general said, which should be seen as a major strategic event for Ukrainian military leaders to consider.
“He is weaker today than he was 72 hours ago because the key to Putin’s survival is absolute relentless control,” McKenzie said Sunday. “That myth has been punctured and you have that disarray at the top, which I think makes him weak, vulnerable and, I would add, even more dangerous.”
That’s why this moment may not be all good news for Ukraine.
The main concern shared by multiple former military and diplomatic officials is that Putin might be pushed to show strength to rebut this moment of weakness. That once again raises the specter that the Russian president could choose to use a tactical nuclear weapon to quell Ukraine’s counteroffensive and reinforce his strongman image that he has developed since he first came to power in 1999.
The fear that Putin may choose to use that type of weapon was raised again when he announced earlier in June that he would deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus next month.
“Putin’s history and Russian doctrine or philosophy is to escalate to de-escalate,” McKenzie said. “He’s run out of tools to do it in a nonnuclear way. So now, you got to start taking a look at things that could have irreparable consequences.”