Putin’s fall could be the domino that topples the world’s autocrats

Vladimir Putin is likely on his way out as Russia’s president. He will be followed by autocrats governing countries such as Hungary, Turkey and Israel — to name a few. Though this process will take some time, it is a clear triumph of the innovative democratic principles upon which the United States was founded in 1776. 

When Putin entered the national political stage in 1999, he was hand-picked by then-Russian President Boris Yeltsin and elected by the Duma. I was doing work in Russia then and witnessed how proud Russians were of their new president. Like them, he was ordinary, critical of how most state enterprises were privatized by a small number of men — the oligarchs or robber barons — and embarrassed by the declining reputation of his country.

A masterful Machiavellian, Putin quickly solidified his position and popularity by raising pensions, investing in economic growth, punishing oligarchs, voicing his desire for a greater Russia, and cooperating with the West.

Less noticeable were his investments in the development of new cyberspace technologies that were eventually used to interfere in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections, and in the army that would annex the Crimea peninsula in 2013 and invade Ukraine in 2022 — this time with a failure that allowed the private army, the Wagner Group, and its leader and former Putin ally, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to mutiny against him, signaling the end of his tenure. 

Though the mutiny was quickly resolved and Putin kept his office, it took him several days to address the Russian and international public. And when he did, he seemed nervous and diffident, did not make eye contact with his audience and spoke as fast as a machine gun to assert his authority. But all many saw was an “emperor with no clothes.”

A similar descent awaits autocrats such as Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdo?an, Turkey’s president, and Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister — despite many differences among them.

Orbán became Hungary’s president in 2010 and slowly chipped away at its democratic systems, enacted anti-immigration policies, distanced himself from the more democratic European Union countries, and did not join them to support the Russia-Ukraine war. It was a far cry from the jubilation I observed on the streets of Budapest when Hungary declared itself a democracy in fall 1989. And although Orbán and his party continue to enjoy modest public support, his standing could change as fast as Putin’s.

Erdo?an has been Turkey’s president since 2017 and its prime minister for many years before that. In the election held in May, he suffered the humiliation of having to go through a runoff election because his conservative party, Justice and Development, was unable to garner the support of more than 50 percent of the voters. Next time, or perhaps sooner, he may be forced out.

When Netanyahu first became prime minister in 1996 and an on-and-off prime minister for more than 16 years, he began to build power and links with other parties that he needed to form coalition governments, started taking bribes for which he is awaiting trial, and championed a judicial overhaul that could help acquit him. 

Having lived in Israel for many years, I have watched it slide into autocratic, theocratic democracy to a breaking point that has been taking hundreds of thousands of Israelis every weekend for the past 22 weeks in protest. Among the protesters were many army leaders, air force reservists and public figures, such as former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak who recently called for “civil disobedience” against Netanyahu’s plan. As a result, Netanyahu has softened his stance, but he could still be ousted in the next elections.

Putin, Orbán, Erdo?an and Netanyahu are but a few examples of declining autocratic rulers. Others in several ex-Soviet countries and China’s President Xi Jinping are taking note of these developments and calculating their next steps. An important and notable example of this is the recent change in China’s attitude toward the U.S., from despondent to amicable, reflected in the recent meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Xi.

And while it is impossible to predict how these rulers will fall, the tide has clearly turned. Some may be removed by force, others by voters, and some may be forbidden to run for reelection for many years, as was the case of former President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil. 

All of these developments indicate a process of weakening autocracies relative to Western democracies, led by the U.S. This would have been less possible without the Russia-Ukraine war, which crystallized the differences between governments that favor freedom and the rule of law, and those that don’t. 

More and more people seem to prefer life where they are “we the people” than where they are “we the subjects.” Our forefathers established such a novel preference in 1776. Now more countries and people are fighting for it.

Avraham Shama is the former dean of the College of Business at the University of Texas, The Pan-American. He is a professor emeritus at the Anderson School of Management at the University of New Mexico. His new book, “Cyberwars: David Knight Goes to Moscow,” was recently published by 3rd Coast Books.