Tim Scott sparks fresh GOP interest as DeSantis stumbles

Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) is showing signs of traction in the 2024 GOP primary amid concerns over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s viability to take on former President Trump.

A handful of early presidential primary state polls released in recent weeks have shown Scott gaining ground on DeSantis. Meanwhile, the senator recently met with several Republican governors and key GOP donors in Aspen, Colo., a source familiar with the matter confirmed to The Hill. The meeting was first reported by CBS News.

The fresh interest in Scott comes as DeSantis struggles to live up to the hype that surrounded his launch. But while Republicans praise Scott’s positive campaign message, they also acknowledge Trump is still widely seen as the front-runner in the GOP race.

“He’s just a very positive guy who has a positive message for the country. And after so many years now of a deteriorating political environment, I do think there’s a large segment of voters who want that kind of change,” said New Hampshire-based Republican strategist Mike Dennehy, who’s unaligned in the primary.

The South Carolina Republican has slowly started to see some momentum in early state polling since he launched his campaign in May.

A pair of recent Fox Business polls in South Carolina and Iowa found Scott in the double digits. In South Carolina, he placed fourth at 10 percent among GOP primary voters, behind Trump at 48 percent, Haley at 14 percent and DeSantis at 13 percent. In Iowa, Scott placed third at 11 percent among GOP caucus goers, while Trump stood at 46 percent and DeSantis at 16 percent.

In a University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll released this month, Scott placed third at 8 percent, behind Trump at 37 percent and DeSantis at 23 percent. 

At the same time, many national polls still have Scott registering in the single digits. A RealClearPolitics polling average as of Wednesday had Trump in first place at 53 percent, DeSantis at 18 percent and all others at less than 10 percent. Scott placed sixth at 2.9 percent. 

While Scott’s gains in some early state polls are notable, the numbers show a wide gulf between him and the former president, who remains the front-runner in the race.

Still, the renewed interest in Scott could pose a threat to others in the field, most notably DeSantis, whose campaign has sought to revamp its strategy in recent weeks as the candidate struggles to close the gap against Trump.

The Florida governor’s campaign confirmed Tuesday they had cut a third of its staff, including the previously announced departure of 10 events staffers. The news was first reported by Politico.

“I do think that could be playing a factor because, frankly, many people, the class of folks who are paying the most attention right now — which are Republican activists and strong Republican voters who are always interested in elections — they expected more from DeSantis, and they aren’t getting it,” said Dennehy, the New Hampshire strategist.

“So I do believe that they are taking a look at others in the field right now,” he added. “So there’s no doubt in my mind that DeSantis’s failure thus far is the benefit of the rest of the field.”

Others say Scott is rising on his own volition.

“I think Tim Scott gains support on his own independent of what happens with Ron DeSantis,” said Dave Wilson, a GOP strategist who previously served as president of the influential Palmetto Family Council. “I think you’ve got a lot of Republican primary voter base that has not made up its mind yet.”

Members of the party say voters are attracted to Scott largely because of his optimistic message. He has leaned on the inspirational aspects of his personal story, as someone raised by a single mother in poverty who later went on to serve in the U.S. Senate. Scott, the upper chamber’s only Black Republican, has leaned into his story as a way to counter what he calls “the lies of the radical Left.”

“I think the steady rise in the polls show [Scott’s momentum], the increased donor interest that has arisen, and then even just little things like crowd size in places like Iowa, New Hampshire and elsewhere, that folks are liking what they’re seeing from Sen. Scott,” an operative familiar with his campaign told The Hill.

In a nod to the fact that Scott could be emerging as a threat to his GOP rivals, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie attacked the South Carolina senator this week, alleging that Scott is
“afraid to tell the truth about Donald Trump.” Christie made the remarks in response to Scott saying he didn’t see Trump as responsible for the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack. 

More from The Hill

Scott’s campaign declined to comment on Christie’s remarks. 

Meanwhile, DeSantis’s campaign believes the 2024 GOP primary is still a two-person race between him and Trump.

“No matter how much the media and D.C. elites try to destroy Ron DeSantis, they can’t change the fact that this is a two-man race for the nomination,” DeSantis campaign spokesperson Andrew Romeo said in a statement to The Hill.

“Ron DeSantis is ready to prove the doubters wrong yet again and our campaign is prepared to execute on his vision for the Great American Comeback as we transition into the next phase of winning this primary and beating Joe Biden,” he added.

It’s also still early in the 2024 primary, with the first GOP debate in Milwaukee about a month away. Republicans say DeSantis is still viewed as a formidable candidate who’s been received well in early primary states.

They also say they’re encouraged by the pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down’s ground game. Iowa GOP strategist Jimmy Centers said Never Back Down is “setting the standard” for voter outreach in Iowa and said the pivot toward smaller-size events is a smart move for the Florida governor. 

But there are also signs that DeSantis has taken notice of Scott’s recent momentum. NBC News reported earlier this month about a confidential memo from the DeSantis campaign that said, “We expect Tim Scott to receive appropriate scrutiny in the weeks ahead.”

It remains to be seen whether DeSantis will go after Scott directly during next month’s debate. Whatever happens, though, some Republicans warn that Scott will be a tricky target for his primary rivals.

It’s “going to be very difficult for people to, especially his competitors, to go head-to-head with ‘I believe in the opportunity of America,’” said Wilson, the former president of the Palmetto Family Council.