Play

  • Lee is fighting wind shear and has weakened significantly.
  • Its intensity will rebound this weekend.
  • It’s too soon to tell what land areas this hurricane may threaten next week.
  • Bermuda, the northeast U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada should monitor the forecast closely.
  • Dangerous high surf, rip currents and coastal flooding are likely along the East Coast next week.

Hurricane Lee is fighting wind shear this evening and has weakened somewhat from its Category 5 peak early Friday. The hurricane will likely pass north of the Leeward Islands, but its future beyond that is uncertain regarding potential impacts later next week in Bermuda, Atlantic Canada and possibly parts of the Northeast Seaboard.

Here’s where the system is now: Hurricane Lee is less than 500 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, and is moving west-northwest.

Moderate to strong wind shear is affecting the hurricane, which has induced some weakening since early Friday. Some additional weakening is possible on Saturday, but this wind shear ought to abate this weekend and Lee should restrengthen by early next week amid otherwise favorable conditions.

Warm ocean water and a moist environment contributed to Lee’s explosive strengthening in recent days. In fact, water temperatures in this part of the Atlantic Ocean were record warm in August. These ingredients remain in place.

S?ome fluctuations are expected over the next several days due to wind shear and the possibility of eyewall replacement cycles.

H?ere’s where Lee will go the next five days: Fortunately, Lee’s center will pass well north of the northern Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Those areas could still see outer bands of showers, possibly heavy at times, some gusty winds, dangerous surf and rip currents, particularly along north and northeast-facing coasts.

A?fter that, the forecast becomes more uncertain due to its recent intensity struggles and a mid-week northward turn.

(?MORE: 12 Things You May Not Know About Hurricane Forecasts)

Next week’s forecast is uncertain for Bermuda, Atlantic Canada and possibly the Northeast U.S.: A northward turn is eventually expected next week, but where this new trajectory takes Lee is less certain.

A combination of factors will determine where Hurricane Lee eventually goes next week.

Advertisement

1. How strong and expansive the Bermuda-Azores high is at that time over the western Atlantic.

2. The placement of a southward plunge in the jet stream spreading toward the eastern U.S.

T?he hurricane will likely take a northward curving track between those two large-scale steering mechanisms.

For now the trends in the ensemble computer model guidance over the last several days suggests the “recurve” likely will not be sharp enough to avoid all land areas. And this turn has gradually been delayed, but confidence in such a turn is high.

A?nd the later Lee makes that north, then northeast turn, the greater the chance it could track near enough to parts of New England and Atlantic Canada to at least bring some rain and wind there late next week. Also complicating this is, as with most Atlantic hurricanes, Lee’s wind field will become larger as it moves north next week.

D?angerous surf will occur. O?ne certainty with Lee’s track, regardless of exactly where it goes, is that it will generate dangerous high surf, rip currents, coastal flooding, even beach erosion along the Eastern Seaboard next week. That’s particularly the case from the North Carolina to New England.

Given the storm’s initial slow movement and increasing size, this coastal flooding will likely occur over multiple days and high tide cycles.

K?eep this in mind if you have plans if you live near or plan to head to the Atlantic beaches next week. Stay out of the water, especially if red flags are flying at the beach.

As with most hurricanes, this forecast is subject to change. C?heck back with us at weather.com for the latest on this, and the 2023 hurricane season.

L?ee’s History So Far

Lee became the 13th storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season Tuesday afternoon and the fourth hurricane of the season late Wednesday afternoon. That was over a week ahead of the average fourth hurricane pace of Sept. 16, according to National Hurricane Center data.

L?ee then underwent explosive rapid intensification, going from a Category 1 to Category 5 hurricane in just 18 hours Thursday. Only three other Atlantic hurricanes since 1982 had seen their winds increase by 80 mph in 24 hours or less since 1982, most recently Matthew in 2016. It was the fastest 24-hour intensification anywhere in the Atlantic Basin outside the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea in 41 years, according to Kieran Bhatia, a Princeton scientist.

Sustained winds of 160 mph were recorded by hurricane reconnaissance Thursday evening, making it the first Category 5 hurricane since Ian in 2022. Prior to Lee, only 39 other Atlantic hurricanes have reached Category 5 intensity over the past 100 years.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.