AP Photo/Artie Walker Jr.

Former President Donald Trump still holds a commanding lead in the Republican presidential primary, but new polling indicates that his grip on the early states may not be as firm as conventional wisdom suggests.

According to a new CBS News/YouGov survey conducted in Iowa and New Hampshire between September 15-24, more Republican voters in the two states have ruled out voting for Trump than have decided they will back him.

In Iowa, just 20% of voters say they are only considering Trump, while 48% are choosing between the former president and other candidates. Thirty-one percent, meanwhile, say they are not considering casting their ballot for Trump.

That leaves a shocking 79% of the electorate either open, or committed to voting for a candidate other than Trump.

The story is similar in New Hampshire, where 23% of voters are committed to backing Trump, 43% are keeping their options open, and 34% are only considering candidates other than Trump.

Still, Trump holds significant leads over his competition when voters are asked who they would vote for if the elections were held today. In Iowa, Trump would have the support of 51% of Republicans. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (21%) trails Trump in second place, while former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley (8%) came in third.

In New Hampshire, Trump boasts an even greater lead thanks to voters’ dispersed support for other candidates. Trump (50%) still leads, with DeSantis (13%) and Haley (11%) trailing immediately behind him. But longshots Vivek Ramaswamy (8%) and Chris Christie (8%) also have notable followings in the Granite State.

Trump — who skipped the first Republican primary debate last month — will not participate in Wednesday night’s forum in California either despite the fact that supermajorities of Republicans, Fox News viewers, and even Trump voters think the former president should participate in the second debate.

The CBS/YouGov poll found that 62% of Republicans in Iowa and 53% of GOP voters in New Hampshire identified the debates as a “major factor” in helping them reach their ultimate decision of who to back.

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