Spot gold and silver both took a pounding this week. Lumber prices.
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Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. This column emphasizes JWR’s “tangibles heavy” investing strategy and contrarian perspective. Today, we look at lumber prices. (See the Commodities section.)
Precious Metals:
Spot gold and silver both took a pounding this week. This was mostly attributed to Dollar strength, with news that interest rates would remain high. But part of this was also due to the stock market decline — a 400-point drop on Tuesday. Doubtless, some traders liquidated part of their precious metals ETFs, to cover stock losses. Look at any such dip in the metals as an opportunity to stack more silver. The fundamentals haven’t changed: Buy low and sell high.
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At Gold-Eagle.com: Gold SWOT: ETFs Backed by Gold Are Now on Track for the Biggest Weekly Outflow Since June.
Economy & Finance:
Both the Biden Regime and the Federal Reserve seem to be in denial of the unfolding recession. The yield curve has been inverted for more than 16 months. Maintaining higher interest rates may temporarily stave off inflation, but these rates are not a cure for the underlying systemic problems: fiat currency and fractional reserve banking. Mark my words: The Treasury and Fed are now squeezed between recession and inflation, with no room to maneuver. If they lower rates, then inflation will come back with a vengeance. If they raise rates any higher, then they will kill the engine of the economy. And, if they dawdle and continue their “pause” then we’ll sink into a recession. The 400-point NYSE drop on Tuesday, October 3rd was indicative: The markets are not easily fooled by rhetoric. Bottom line: Brace for recession, widespread layoffs, and a stock market crash. – JWR
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Dimon Warns 7% Fed Rate Still Possible, Times of India Says.
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Where Did Neel Kashkari’s Infinite Cash Go?
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Data Firm Finds Greenwashing On The Rise.
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Linked over at the Whatfinger.com news aggregation site, a Steve Bannon interview: Dr. Navarro: “Before Our Eyes, Our Entire Economy And Financial System Is Disintegrating”.
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CNBC: 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields rise to their highest levels since 2007.
Commodities:
The trend line for lumber prices appears to have reverted to the mean. There are a couple of factors in play: First is the fact that the Biden regime is continuing to hold a tight grip on the National Forests — with very few large timber sales announced. That explains the run-up in lumber prices in 2020. But the second factor is interest rate changes. After many years of artificially low rates, the Fed has shifted to “tight money”. This is making home mortgages unavailable to most would-be home buyers. At higher interest rates, they simply cannot qualify to get a loan. Whenever that happens, new home construction drops off, and correspondingly, lumber prices fall. Assuming that interest rates stay high, we can expect a crash in lumber prices. The owners of land with standing timber should take note! – JWR
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Oil headed toward low $70s next year, says Citi.
Derivatives:
Analysis: Forex derivatives nudged out into the open as regulations increase costs.
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Regulations Roundup – October 2023.
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In India: MCX to implement its new commodity derivative platform on October 3.
Forex & Cryptos:
Hedgeweek: Bridgewater founder sees US debt crisis ahead.
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Third Quarter 2023 in Figures.
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Ungovernable U.S. Congress Elevates Uncertainty But Dollar Softens Only Modestly.
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Bank of France Deputy Governor Views CBDCs as a Catalyst For Cross-border Payments.
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FTX-SBF charges valid despite lack of US crypto laws, DOJ says.
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail or via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. Thanks!
