For the first time in its history of independence, Botswana voters could reject the BDP. Though the last Afrobarometer survey in the country was carried out back in 2022, it surprisingly showed Botswana’s opposition with a strong lead over the long-incumbent governing party, with more than 40% of the vote compared to just 22% for the BDP. While analysts have pointed to a divided opposition as a factor that could stifle hopes of a breakthrough, by-election losses for the BDP and the influence of former president Ian Khama — son of Botswana’s first president, Seretse Khama — also suggest a potential opening. Khama is currently in a highly public feud with the incumbent president, Mokgweetsi Masisi, whom he slammed as “authoritarian” in a recent interview with The Africa Report.