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  • A tropical storm may develop off the coast of the Southeast U.S. by Friday.
  • That storm will move north along the Eastern Seaboard into the weekend.
  • Rain, wind and coastal flooding will spread up the Eastern Seaboard, regardless of what this system is called.

A? tropical storm is expected to form off the Southeast U.S. coast, and will spread heavy rain, strong wind gusts, high surf, coastal flooding and rip currents up the East Coast into the weekend.

T?ropical storm, storm surge alerts have been issued. The National Hurricane Center has issued a tropical storm warning for parts of the East Coast from Cape Fear, North Carolina, to Fenwick Island, Delaware, and for portions of the Chesapeake Bay, Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound. This means tropical storm force winds are expected in the next 36 hours in these areas.

A?lso, a storm surge warning has been posted from Duck, North Carolina, to Chincoteague, Virginia, including southern Chesapeake Bay, Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. This means life-threatening storm surge flooding is possible in these areas within the next 48 hours.

B?ut this isn’t yet a tropical storm. The NHC is currently calling this “Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen.” This is a procedure the NHC uses to issue tropical storm watches and warnings before a storm actually forms, increasing lead time for those areas affected.

(?MORE: What Is A Potential Tropical Cyclone?)

T?he system is heavily lopsided to the north and rain is possible already from the coastal Carolinas to Florida.

The NHC is forecasting low pressure to become a tropical storm by Friday, but this change likely won’t be felt by anyone on the coast.

T?he next named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season will be named “Ophelia.”

I?mpacts

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We expect this storm’s peak impacts to be Friday and Saturday, with some lingering impacts possible Sunday.

S?torm Surge: O?nshore winds will push water toward coastal areas, leading to storm surge flooding from parts of the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic.

T?he map below shows the NHC forecast of peak inundation if the storm surge arrives at high tide.

T?here are two high tides of concern: predawn Saturday morning and again Saturday afternoon.

In general, while coastal flooding is forecast in some of the areas in the map below early Saturday morning, it is the Saturday afternoon high tide that is of most concern for most of those areas. Some of those areas from southern New Jersey to the Virginia Tidewater could see moderate to major coastal flooding during that Saturday afternoon high tide.

T?here will also be dangerous high surf and rip currents that will stretch from northeast Florida to coastal New England. Stay out of the water if red flags are flying at the beach into the weekend.

Winds: Tropical storm force winds are expected to arrive in the areas covered by warnings in North Carolina on Friday, then spread north along the coast Friday night into Saturday into the other areas covered by warnings.

T?hese strong winds gusts are capable of downing trees and knocking out power in the areas under warnings from eastern North Carolina to Delaware. The downed-tree threat will be enhanced due to ground soaked by rain.

H?eavy rain: Deep, tropical moisture will also be pulled north toward the East Coast. That will wring out bands of heavy rain, generally along and to the east of the storm’s track. Local flash flooding is possible where these bands of soaking rain stall for a few hours.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.