Most other House Republicans watching as Congress lurches toward a federal shutdown see something else entirely.

“This isn’t a function of him being concerned about process,” Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) said. “This is a function of personality.”

“He wants Kevin,” added a Gaetz friend. “That’s it, and everything else revolves around that.”

With less than 48 hours until the shutdown deadline, this one deeply chaotic relationship has emerged as a key factor driving the standoff.

Gaetz has by no means brought McCarthy to his knees by himself. But he has harnessed the anti-establishment fervor inside the House GOP like no other member, setting trap after trap for a speaker desperate to please his detractors and keep his job.

Past government shutdowns have been organized around a demand — reversing the Affordable Care Act, for instance, or building a border wall. This one, should it come to pass Sunday, is better understood as being centered on a long, nasty grudge.

The tensions spilled out again yesterday, with Gaetz angrily confronting McCarthy in front of the entire GOP conference. The scene rekindled questions about the factors driving Gaetz’s recent behavior.

He’s reportedly exploring a run for governor, which might be compelling him to turn his antics up a notch. And he has been persistent in his policy demands of late — never mind that he voted repeatedly for CRs under President Donald Trump.

But the real throughline is Gaetz and McCarthy’s mutual antipathy, according to those who have watched the two men closely in recent years.

“There is something between them, and I don’t know what it is,” Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) said. “And that’s the impression I’ve gotten from McCarthy, too: It’s not policy-driven; it’s personal.”

Both men brush off the suggestions of animosity. “Matt is Matt,” McCarthy has said. Gaetz says he’s more concerned about McCarthy’s broken promises than any personal issues.

Yet the two have persistently clashed, dating back to Trump’s presidency, when they were engaged in what might be best described as a political love triangle, competing for Trump’s attention and affection.

As one former House leadership aide put it, “I wouldn’t underestimate the jealousy factor.”

Gaetz would often float ideas to Trump, only to see McCarthy intervene and kill them, according to senior GOP aides on the Hill and in Trump’s White House. During Trump’s first impeachment, for instance, Gaetz publicly pressured McCarthy to name MAGA-minded members to the House Intelligence Committee, which was leading the public hearings.

McCarthy phoned Gaetz and excoriated him for launching a public campaign without a heads-up, according to a lawmaker with knowledge of the situation. McCarthy then convinced Trump that he’d be better served with the members already on the panel, though he ended up subbing in Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), a Trump loyalist.

Another incident from that era was captured in a new memoir written by former Trump White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson. Late at a 2019 Camp David retreat, Hutchinson says Gaetz followed her to a cabin he thought was hers — only to find McCarthy, who had gathered a bunch of Republicans for drinks and conversation.

Gaetz said he was lost, she writes, and prodded Hutchinson to escort him back to his cabin. “Get a life, Matt,” McCarthy said, shutting the door. (Gaetz denies the episode happened.)

McCarthy has offered olive branches over the years, according to people close to the speaker. He helped Gaetz land seats on the House Armed Services and Judiciary Committee, which the Floridian was pining for, according to one senior GOP aide.

But when it came time for McCarthy to fulfill his own ambitions and claim the speaker’s gavel, Gaetz quickly emerged as his fiercest critic — mocking him publicly and leading a conservative revolt that was settled only after four days, 15 ballots and a series of tense episodes on the floor (including one where Rogers lunged at Gaetz).

While other conservatives flipped their votes to McCarthy in exchange for a suite of policy and process promises, Gaetz never once voted for him — agreeing only to vote “present,” passively allowing him to secure the gavel.

Meanwhile, those promises — which reportedly included allowing regular order for the 12 yearly appropriations bills — set the stage for the present showdown. Now McCarthy’s only way out will be to pass a bipartisan CR, reneging on his January deal and empowering Gaetz to seek revenge.

“Gaetz has boxed McCarthy in,” said one senior GOP aide close to McCarthy world. “People think Gaetz is dumb, but … he’s really smart.”

But should Gaetz take the next step and move to oust McCarthy from the speaker’s chair, it will not be without risks. Actually removing McCarthy will require Democrats to join the band of rebels, and some Republicans believe that will never happen — instantly rendering Gaetz irrelevant.

“If he wants to, he can keep the attention … and that keeps people asking about him,” said one senior House GOP aide who predicted Gaetz might flinch. “The moment he calls the motion to vacate, the charade is up. It’s put up or shut up.”

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