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  • Tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of the Texas and Mexico coasts.
  • This system will move west toward Mexico.
  • Flooding rain, coastal flooding, gusty winds, high surf and rip currents will affect the western Gulf Coast of the U.S., especially Texas.
  • Flooding rain is also likely in parts of Mexico and Central America.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of the western Gulf Coast ahead of a tropical system that’s expected to track into Mexico, while also lashing Texas. Flooding rain, coastal flooding, rip currents and high surf will affect parts of Texas and eastern Mexico into Thursday.

Here’s where this system is located now and where it’s headed: This system has been dubbed Potential Tropical Cyclone One by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This naming procedure allows the NHC to issue advisories, watches and warnings and a forecast path for a system that hasn’t yet developed but poses a threat of tropical-storm-force winds to land areas within 48 hours.

The disturbance is centered several hundred miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas, and is moving to the north.

If the system organizes into a tropical storm, it would be named Alberto. The NHC predicts the system will organize into a tropical storm sometime late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

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It’s expected to track westward and move into eastern Mexico as Tropical Storm Alberto late Wednesday into early Thursday.

However, impacts will arrive well ahead of that landfall, and they will spread far to the system’s north across Texas.

Here’s where t​ropical storm alerts are in effect: A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande. A tropical storm warning also extends southward from there into northeast Mexico.

This means tropical storm conditions (winds 39 mph or greater) are expected in the warning area within 36 hours, or in this case by Wednesday.

(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

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Expected impacts: Heavy rainfall in Texas and northeast Mexico will be the most widespread impact from this system regardless of how well organized it becomes. Totals from South Texas into northeast Mexico could be 5 to 10 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.

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Flash flooding is a possibility in coastal and South Texas, including in Brownsville, Corpus Christi, Houston and San Antonio. Flooding and mudslides are likely across eastern Mexico, as well.

H​ere’s a general timeline for the heaviest rain in Texas.

  • Through Tuesday night: Coastal Texas, including Houston, to southwest Louisiana.
  • W​ednesday-Wednesday night: Coastal Texas to south-central Texas, including Houston, Corpus Christi, San Antonio and Austin.
  • T​hursday: South Texas westward along the Rio Grande to the Big Bend region.
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S​torm surge, rip current and high surf are also threats. P​ersistent east winds to the north of the system will continue to generate swells that push toward the Texas and Mexico coasts.

M​inor to moderate coastal flooding is expected beginning Tuesday and lasting through midweek, especially at times of high tide. Storm surge could peak at 2 to 4 feet along a part of the upper Texas coast, including Galveston Bay, if the peak surge coincides with high tide.

Be aware of this threat in locations prone to storm surge and do not try to drive through flooded roads. Beachgoers should stay out of the ocean because of the rip current danger.

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(Data: NOAA)

M​ORE ON WEATHER.COM

-​ Why The Atlantic’s Slow Start To Hurricane Season Is Meaningless

-​ How To Prepare For Hurricane Season

-​ The Danger of Rip Currents